How Will Trump Tariffs Affect Canada Housing and Cottage Market?

 

If you've been keeping up with the news, you may have heard about U.S. President Donald Trump's plan to impose a 25 percent trade tariff on Canadian goods. Now that this policy could be our reality, many Canadians—including Kawartha/Highlands home buyers and sellers—are wondering: How will Trump's tariffs affect housing in Kawartha/Highlands?

Let's break it down in simple terms and see if this tariff could affect housing prices, mortgage rates, and the overall affordability of homes in Kawartha/Highlands.

What Is a Trade Tariff, and Why Does It Matter?

A trade tariff is essentially a tax that one country imposes on imported goods from another country. In this case, Trump's proposed 25 per cent tariff would apply to various Canadian exports, making them more expensive for U.S. buyers.

Canada exports a lot of materials that are crucial for housing, such as lumber, steel, and aluminum. If the U.S. stops buying as much from Canada, those industries could slow down, affecting jobs and economic growth.

How Will Trump Tariffs Affect Canada Housing? It Could Make Homes More Expensive

At first glance, you might think a tariff on Canadian exports shouldn't affect housing prices in Kawartha/Highlands. However, tariffs can cause a chain reaction:

• If U.S. demand for Canadian lumber and steel drops, Canadian suppliers may reduce production or cut jobs.

• With fewer exports, Canadian companies may raise prices on local materials to make up for lost revenue.

• Construction costs could go up, leading to higher home prices for new builds and renovations.

What About Mortgage Rates?

When it comes to mortgages, how will Trump Tariffs affect Canada housing? The Bank of Canada keeps a close eye on economic changes, and tariffs can slow down the economy. If businesses struggle because they can't sell as much to the U.S., this could lead to job losses and lower consumer confidence.

To stimulate the economy, the Bank of Canada might lower interest rates. This could be good news for home buyers, as lower interest rates mean cheaper mortgages.

However, if the economy slows too much, banks may also tighten lending rules, making it harder to qualify for a mortgage.

Could This Lead to a Housing Market Slowdown?

If job losses increase due to weaker exports, some homeowners may be forced to sell, adding more homes to the market. In this scenario, we could see a temporary dip in home prices, especially in areas where job markets are hit hardest.

However, our housing market has historically been resilient. Demand remains high due to immigration, population growth, and a strong rental market. Any slowdown could be short-lived, especially if interest rates drop and buying becomes more affordable.

Should Kawartha/Highlands Buyers and Sellers Worry?

Still wondering how will Trump Tariffs affect Canada housing? For now, there's no need to panic. The real estate market is strong, and while tariffs could cause some ripples, they're unlikely to crash the housing market. It could do the opposite. The market could boom.

If you're a buyer, this could be a great time to watch for opportunities—especially if prices stabilize or interest rates fall. If you're a seller, understanding the market's movements and pricing your home strategically will be key.

Final Thoughts

When you think about how will Trump Tariffs affect Canada housing, global events, like trade tariffs, can have unexpected effects on the local real estate market, but smart buyers and sellers stay informed and plan ahead.

While the full impact of these tariffs remains to be seen, it's important to stay up-to-date on the latest market trends and economic indicators. By understanding how external factors can influence the housing market, you can make more informed decisions when buying or selling a home.

Whether you're a first-time buyer, a seasoned investor, or a homeowner looking to sell, keeping a close eye on the market and working with a knowledgeable real estate professional can help you navigate the potential challenges and opportunities that may arise from Trump's trade policies.

Remember, the Canadian housing market has weathered storms before, and with the right strategies and a bit of foresight, you can position yourself to thrive, even in the face of global economic uncertainties. Stay informed, stay vigilant, and trust in the resilience of the Kawartha/Highlands real estate market.

Brought for you by:

Your local Realtor®

If you are looking to either Buy or Sell, contact me at 705-927-6236

Brad Sinclair, Sales Representative

Team Lead at The Brad Sinclair Team

Royal Heritage Realty

Your inside source to cottage country

The Trump Effect on our Real Estate Market-Ever Changing

 

What's Happening in the Markets?

It has been a crazy few days. Lots of things are changing on the fly. Things could change back to normal, change to better times and relationships, or just to all-out war. This is how volatile American politics are with Donald Trump steering the ship, and we are just here for the ride.

I read an article that the Bank of Canada might need to lower interest rates to keep Canada afloat with a prolonged trade war. This means higher inflation. It also could spark another COVID-type real estate buying frenzy.

Remember the beginning of Covid, where I was preaching that the market would not fall, but most comments on my social media told me I was wrong and real estate prices would drop in half? Is this the same scenario?

Tariffs and Trade Wars

The 25% U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods and 10% tariffs on Canadian energy are enacted. The feds responded with 25% counter-tariffs affecting $30 billion worth of goods to start and $125 billion worth of goods three weeks later.

There are no two ways about it; the trade war will cause economic chaos, with a hit of up to 4.2 percentage points to Canada's annual GDP on the table. The pain began yesterday, with the loonie dropping below $0.69 and the TSX cratering after Trump said the tariffs were a go.

The path to ending the trade war is murky, with Trump saying there's "no room left" to negotiate. Even after launching a $1.3 billion plan to strengthen border security and appointing a fentanyl czar, Canada still hasn't done enough, in his eyes. 

The head of the Canada Border Services Agency told the Globe and Mail that it was unclear what else the agency could do to change Trump's mind. 

Let’s face it. Stop the bulcrap. This has nothing to do with the border. This is a broader plan from Donald Trump that we, as Canadians, have no idea what he is trying to really accomplish.

Canada's Retaliation

So, Ottawa announced 25% retaliatory tariffs on $30 billion worth of U.S. imports, including coffee, beer, apparel, and cosmetics. The tariffs will expand in three weeks to another $125 billion worth of goods, likely including categories like produce and autos. 

Donald Trump responded with a Truth Social post threatening tariff increases, but the commerce secretary later said Trump might soon announce ways Canada could earn tariff relief.

While the immediate economic shocks of the tariffs are already being felt, the trade war is also stoking national unity. Many provinces are looking at ways to reduce trade barriers, support Canadian businesses, and hit the U.S. where it hurts. 

Provinces like Manitoba, Ontario, B.C., Newfoundland and Labrador, and Nova Scotia are pulling some or all U.S. booze from provincially run liquor store shelves.

Ontario Premier Doug Ford said that cutting off electricity imports, cancelling a Starlink deal, and legislating the promotion of Canadian products by retailers were all on the table.

New Brunswick and Nova Scotia were uber-aggressive, barring U.S. companies from bidding on provincial contracts. Nova Scotia also doubled tolls for U.S. commercial vehicles.

These retaliatory measures show that Canada is not backing down without a fight. The trade war is quickly escalating, and there's no telling where it will go. One thing is for sure - the economic and political ramifications will be felt for a long time.

As a real estate professional, I'm monitoring how these developments impact the housing market. Will the threat of higher inflation and economic instability lead to another real estate buying frenzy, similar to what we saw at the start of the pandemic? Or will the uncertainty and financial strain lead to a slowdown in the market?

Only time will tell, but one thing is certain - these are truly unprecedented and volatile times. My followers of real estate news will want to stay tuned for the latest updates and insights. Feel free to reach out to me directly if you have any questions or would like to discuss the situation further. I'm here to help navigate these uncertain waters.

Brought for you by:

Your local Realtor®

If you are looking to either Buy or Sell, contact me at 705-927-6236

Brad Sinclair, Sales Representative

Team Lead at The Brad Sinclair Team

Royal Heritage Realty

Your inside source to cottage country

Bank of Canada Set to Cut Interest Rates Again (Fingers Crossed!)

Tiff Macklem Poised to Lower Rates for Third Time in 2024

Tomorrow, the financial world will be watching closely as Tiff Macklem, the Governor of the Bank of Canada, announces whether the central bank will cut interest rates for a third time this year. This highly anticipated decision comes on the heels of Canada's economy growing more than expected in the second quarter, despite the unemployment rate reaching its highest level in two years.

Economists are largely betting on a rate cut, primarily due to the elevated unemployment figures. Reducing the benchmark interest rate could have a ripple effect through the markets, ultimately providing some relief for Canadian consumers. This move could also serve as a much-needed boost for the country's stagnant real estate market, plagued by mortgage challenges and market uncertainty over the past two years.

"A 25-basis-point reduction in the policy rate won't make a huge change overnight, but there is a risk that the housing market interprets this as a signal of further rate cuts to come and sparks an acceleration in housing market activity," warned one economist. This cautious sentiment underscores the delicate balance the Bank of Canada must strike in its decision-making process.

While a rate cut could provide a much-needed boost to the real estate market and the overall economy, there is a risk of overreaction and unsustainable growth. The central bank will need to carefully monitor the market's response and be prepared to adjust its policies accordingly to ensure a stable and healthy economic environment.

Regardless of the outcome, one thing is clear: the Bank of Canada's actions will significantly impact millions of Canadians' lives. The challenge lies in striking the right balance between stimulating growth and maintaining stability – a delicate dance requiring the utmost skill and foresight from Tiff Macklem and his team.

As the country navigates these uncharted waters, the decisions made tomorrow will undoubtedly shape the future of Canada's economic landscape, with ripple effects that will be felt for years to come.