The Trump Effect on our Real Estate Market-Ever Changing

 

What's Happening in the Markets?

It has been a crazy few days. Lots of things are changing on the fly. Things could change back to normal, change to better times and relationships, or just to all-out war. This is how volatile American politics are with Donald Trump steering the ship, and we are just here for the ride.

I read an article that the Bank of Canada might need to lower interest rates to keep Canada afloat with a prolonged trade war. This means higher inflation. It also could spark another COVID-type real estate buying frenzy.

Remember the beginning of Covid, where I was preaching that the market would not fall, but most comments on my social media told me I was wrong and real estate prices would drop in half? Is this the same scenario?

Tariffs and Trade Wars

The 25% U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods and 10% tariffs on Canadian energy are enacted. The feds responded with 25% counter-tariffs affecting $30 billion worth of goods to start and $125 billion worth of goods three weeks later.

There are no two ways about it; the trade war will cause economic chaos, with a hit of up to 4.2 percentage points to Canada's annual GDP on the table. The pain began yesterday, with the loonie dropping below $0.69 and the TSX cratering after Trump said the tariffs were a go.

The path to ending the trade war is murky, with Trump saying there's "no room left" to negotiate. Even after launching a $1.3 billion plan to strengthen border security and appointing a fentanyl czar, Canada still hasn't done enough, in his eyes. 

The head of the Canada Border Services Agency told the Globe and Mail that it was unclear what else the agency could do to change Trump's mind. 

Let’s face it. Stop the bulcrap. This has nothing to do with the border. This is a broader plan from Donald Trump that we, as Canadians, have no idea what he is trying to really accomplish.

Canada's Retaliation

So, Ottawa announced 25% retaliatory tariffs on $30 billion worth of U.S. imports, including coffee, beer, apparel, and cosmetics. The tariffs will expand in three weeks to another $125 billion worth of goods, likely including categories like produce and autos. 

Donald Trump responded with a Truth Social post threatening tariff increases, but the commerce secretary later said Trump might soon announce ways Canada could earn tariff relief.

While the immediate economic shocks of the tariffs are already being felt, the trade war is also stoking national unity. Many provinces are looking at ways to reduce trade barriers, support Canadian businesses, and hit the U.S. where it hurts. 

Provinces like Manitoba, Ontario, B.C., Newfoundland and Labrador, and Nova Scotia are pulling some or all U.S. booze from provincially run liquor store shelves.

Ontario Premier Doug Ford said that cutting off electricity imports, cancelling a Starlink deal, and legislating the promotion of Canadian products by retailers were all on the table.

New Brunswick and Nova Scotia were uber-aggressive, barring U.S. companies from bidding on provincial contracts. Nova Scotia also doubled tolls for U.S. commercial vehicles.

These retaliatory measures show that Canada is not backing down without a fight. The trade war is quickly escalating, and there's no telling where it will go. One thing is for sure - the economic and political ramifications will be felt for a long time.

As a real estate professional, I'm monitoring how these developments impact the housing market. Will the threat of higher inflation and economic instability lead to another real estate buying frenzy, similar to what we saw at the start of the pandemic? Or will the uncertainty and financial strain lead to a slowdown in the market?

Only time will tell, but one thing is certain - these are truly unprecedented and volatile times. My followers of real estate news will want to stay tuned for the latest updates and insights. Feel free to reach out to me directly if you have any questions or would like to discuss the situation further. I'm here to help navigate these uncertain waters.

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Your local Realtor®

If you are looking to either Buy or Sell, contact me at 705-927-6236

Brad Sinclair, Sales Representative

Team Lead at The Brad Sinclair Team

Royal Heritage Realty

Your inside source to cottage country

The Dangers of Highway 28, Surviving and Arriving on this road.

“I’m in a hurry and don’t know why”-Song by Alabama

After the recent death of hockey star Johnny Gaudreau and his brother, I have been reflecting on the dangers of Highway 28, a road I use daily. It's a two-lane road providing access to cottage country from the 401 to north of Bancroft. In my experience, it's a perilous highway, and while I dislike having my family travel on it, it's an essential route. Unfortunately, the situation seems to be worsening every year.

The stretch of Highway 28 I frequently travel runs from Peterborough to Bancroft, and what I've observed there is alarming. Impatience is the primary cause of danger, closely followed by distracted and excessive speeding. Interestingly, the highway is less dangerous during winter when drivers are more attentive due to icy and slippery road conditions, which are common in Canada. Lower traffic volume during winter also contributes to the reduced risk.

Impatience is the main danger on the road. Over the years, I've had to use the paved shoulder to avoid head-on collisions with oncoming cars. It seems that some drivers feel entitled to use my lane, endangering both themselves and others. Reckless passing, regardless of oncoming traffic, is a common sight. It's often the seventh car in a line that's frustrated with the 80km/h speed limit and decides to overtake everyone, disregarding oncoming traffic. This sense of entitlement has cost many lives on Highway 28.

I utilize digital marketing in real estate, and I've noticed that people can't seem to put their phones down. While this is good for business, it creates significant dangers on the road. I've witnessed drivers crossing the yellow lines while glued to their devices. This issue is less prevalent in winter, as people are more attentive to the road, but on sunny summer days, attention shifts to the device rather than the road.

When entitlement and distraction combine with excessive speed, a disaster is inevitable. I admit to exceeding the speed limit on Highway 28, setting my cruise control at 95km/h to avoid being forced off the road by faster traffic. Even at this speed, I'm frequently overtaken as if I'm hardly moving. There's minimal risk of receiving a speeding ticket in Peterborough County due to the scarce presence of the Ontario Provincial Police (OPP) for enforcement along Highway 28. In contrast, OPP presence in Hastings County is more common and has resulted in fewer reckless incidents on Highway 28 from my observation.

North Kawartha Mayor Carolyn Amyotte has been advocating for change along Highway 28. She's concerned about the increasing death toll on this road. I commend Mayor Amyotte for her efforts to enhance safety, including the proposal to establish Community Safety Zones along sections of Highway 28 within North Kawartha.

Is there a solution? Ultimately, the responsibility lies with the drivers on the Highway. Reckless overtaking and endangering others just to reach the same traffic 2km down the road must stop. How much time is saved by driving this way? 5 minutes? 10 minutes?

There's a need for increased enforcement by the Peterborough County OPP on the Highway. Although I understand that the Peterborough OPP detachment also has to monitor Highway 7, which faces similar challenges, additional resources must be allocated to this detachment. I'm willing to contribute more in taxes to ensure the safety of my family and myself on Highway 28. I firmly believe that enforcement is the most crucial action we can take.

Highway 28 serves as a crucial artery for Ontario's cottage country but has unfortunately become a hazardous and deadly stretch of road. Impatience, distraction, and excessive speed are the main culprits, and the lack of enforcement has only made the situation worse.

It's time for a change. Drivers must take responsibility for their actions, and the Peterborough County OPP must prioritize the safety of daily users of Highway 28. Through joint efforts from both the community and the authorities, we can strive to make this Highway a safer place for everyone.